Dev.SN

Iran Projected to Exhaust Methane Reserves by 2025

posted by LaminatorX on Monday March 03 2014, @07:30AM   
from the you-don't-get-high-on-your-own-supply dept.

fx_68 writes:

"Despite holding the world's largest natural gas reserves, Iran's Energy Ministry has warned that the Islamic Republic is on course to become the world's largest importer of natural gas by 2025 unless it can rein in rampant domestic demand. Domestic consumption is surging as their gas network grows and more gas is needed to sustain output from aging oilfields."

• Re:Timing is suspicious. Re:Timing is suspicious. (Score: 5, Interesting) by VLM on Monday March 03 2014, @10:19AM

  by VLM (445) on Monday March 03 2014, @10:19AM (#10042)

  You could just look at some graphs... There's a couple economic realities of extraction such as you never get to extract more than a fraction of the total using even the best tech, and generally speaking the faster you produce the lower your total aggregate yield.

  So, if it weren't for the revolution, they'd be in deep decline by now. As it is they peaked in oil production about a decade ago and are now in permanent decline. You can make lots of money post peak... USA peak in oil production was in the 70s and I don't see many domestic oilmen in the soup lines today. The ability to make money doesn't mean infinite steady growth in actual production of course. Meanwhile consumption has steadily ramped up since the revolution, so exports are getting squeezed both directions. Iran really doesn't have all that long left to sell natgas.

  Predictions are useless in the oil biz, all companies and governments lie about those. There are no publicly available scientific predictions in the biz, just marketing, and its been that way since I started researching and investing a long time ago. Historical production figures usually are honest. So look for the peak in historical data.

  Iran natgas production has quadrupled in the last decade. That's the good news. The bad news is production always declines faster than it increases. Always, across all cultures and economies. So much like the UK experience, once its all pumped out, Iran is going from a net producer to net importer in like 5 years. So it might be a good idea to set up an alternate plan beforehand.

  They might be telling a perfectly true energy story while still being total scammers WRT nukes, or the only reason its getting any real airtime is because they're a little scammy about nukes. But the fundamental energy story is in fact true.

  Iran is fundamentally for centuries something of a regional power, traditionally more moderate than their neighbors. Recent decades excursions into nuttiness seem to be burning out and moderating. WRT current foreign policy, which we as citizens have no input, we would be better off to be their friend in 2030 than still living in 1980 trying to relive the disco era.

  Parent

  Starting Score:	1		point
  Moderation		+3
  Interesting=2, Informative=1, Total=3
  Extra 'Interesting' Modifier		0
  Karma-Bonus Modifier		+1
  Total Score:		5

• Re:Timing is suspicious. (Score: 3, Insightful) by mmcmonster on Monday March 03 2014, @10:40AM

  by mmcmonster (401) on Monday March 03 2014, @10:40AM (#10050)

  Iran is fundamentally for centuries something of a regional power, traditionally more moderate than their neighbors. Recent decades excursions into nuttiness seem to be burning out and moderating. WRT current foreign policy, which we as citizens have no input, we would be better off to be their friend in 2030 than still living in 1980 trying to relive the disco era.

  Absolutely. The nuts in that region have quieted down. The worst thing we could do now is meddle (some more). Let them get their house in order and they'll hopefully again be a force of stability in the region.

  The people of Iran are relatively well off. Well off people avoid bloody revolutions.

  Parent